NFL Week 5 Picks: Winners, Spreads and Scores

Week 5 is our first NFL picks desk with two calls for every game: the team we expect to win and the team we expect to cover the spread. Those are not always the same team. This board covers the 13 games that had not started when we began Sunday morning. Our winner calls through Weeks 1 to 4 stand at 38 correct and 21 incorrect, or 64.4% across 59 calls. That is a straight up editorial record, not a betting return. Our separate spread record starts with this week's published selections. We will add verified final scores to this same article and show what we picked versus what happened. Lines recorded: DraftKings spreads and American odds, captured through The Odds API on October 11, 2026 at 9:45 a.m. Eastern. These are fixed snapshots. Lines can move, and the price available when you check may differ. Our recap will use the exact line published here. Not included: Tampa Bay at Dallas had already finished, and Philadelphia at Jacksonville was already in progress when we captured the slate. Neither counts as a pregame pick in this article. The Week 5 board | Matchup | Winner call | Spread selection, DraftKings snapshot | Projected score | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers +1.5 (−108) | Chicago Bears 24, Green Bay Packers 23 | | Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans +7 (−112) | Houston Texans 20, Tennessee Titans 17 | | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals | Miami Dolphins +7 (−108) | Cincinnati Bengals 23, Miami Dolphins 17 | | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders | Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (−115) | Las Vegas Raiders 24, New England Patriots 20 | | Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings −1.5 (−118) | Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 20 | | Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | Cleveland Browns +2.5 (−110) | Cleveland Browns 23, New York Jets 21 | | Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts +3 (−112) | Indianapolis Colts 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 21 | | New York Giants at Washington Commanders | New York Giants | New York Giants +3.5 (−105) | New York Giants 23, Washington Commanders 20 | | Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (−112) | Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 21 | | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions | Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (−112) | Detroit Lions 27, Arizona Cardinals 23 | | San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers +3 (−105) | San Francisco 49ers 23, Seattle Seahawks 24 | | Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons −3 (−120) | Baltimore Ravens 20, Atlanta Falcons 24 | | Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | Buffalo Bills +3.5 (−115) | Buffalo Bills 24, Los Angeles Rams 27 | Early window Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Chicago Bears. Spread selection: Green Bay Packers +1.5 at −108, DraftKings. Projected score: Chicago Bears 24, Green Bay Packers 23. The case: Chicago led the league in total yards, rushing yards, and time of possession entering Week 5. Its defense had allowed 28 points across the prior three games, which supports a one score road win. The spread read remains separate because this projection leaves Green Bay inside the number. [1] [2] [3] [4] The counterargument: Jordan Love had thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game, and Chicago listed Caleb Williams questionable while Tyson Bagent was expected to start. A clean pocket for Love could turn the Packers passing game into the deciding factor. [1] [2] [3] [4] Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Houston Texans. Spread selection: Tennessee Titans +7 at −112, DraftKings. Projected score: Houston Texans 20, Tennessee Titans 17. The case: Houston entered with 364.3 yards per game against Tennessee's 270.5. The Texans get the outright call in a 20 to 17 road scenario, while Tennessee's lower scoring profile and home field support taking a full touchdown. [5] [6] [7] [8] The counterargument: Tennessee had allowed 20.8 points per game, a workable route to a close game. Houston had Braden Smith and Tank Dell out, with several more Texans still listed questionable. [5] [6] [7] [8] Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Cincinnati Bengals. Spread selection: Miami Dolphins +7 at −108, DraftKings. Projected score: Cincinnati Bengals 23, Miami Dolphins 17. The case: Cincinnati's scoring start and pass rush support the winner call against a Miami offense averaging 11.5 points per game. Miami gets the spread call because Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remained questionable, leaving a shorter Cincinnati margin plausible. [9] [10] [11] [12] The counterargument: Malik Willis can change the script if Miami extends drives, and Chop Robinson's recent pressure meets a Cincinnati line that had allowed nine sacks. Receiver uncertainty also raises the cost of an early Bengals deficit. [9] [10] [11] [12] Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Las Vegas Raiders. Spread selection: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 at −115, DraftKings. Projected score: Las Vegas Raiders 24, New England Patriots 20. The case: Las Vegas had averaged 28.8 points and entered 3 and 1, while New England had scored 16.3 per game. The Raiders get both calls against a Patriots secondary missing Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis. [13] [14] [15] [16] The counterargument: New England had produced 405 yards and 26 first downs in its Buffalo win. Ashton Jeanty was questionable with ankle and foot issues, so a strong Patriots offensive carryover could make this tight. [13] [14] [15] [16] Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Minnesota Vikings. Spread selection: Minnesota Vikings −1.5 at −118, DraftKings. Projected score: Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 20. The case: Minnesota's 4 and 0 start included 12.8 points allowed per game and a plus 5 turnover margin. That defense supplies the extra stop in a three point road projection and clears the recorded 1.5 point handicap. [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] The counterargument: New Orleans entered with the league's fourth ranked passing offense and 26.3 points per game. Christian Darrisaw was out, and several key Vikings offensive players remained questionable. [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Cleveland Browns. Spread selection: Cleveland Browns +2.5 at −110, DraftKings. Projected score: Cleveland Browns 23, New York Jets 21. The case: Cleveland had three straight one score wins, while the Jets had lost three straight and totaled 17 first half points across that skid. The Browns get the outright call and the points in a close finish. [23] [24] [25] [26] The counterargument: Cleveland was without three defensive tackles, including sack leader Mason Graham. That absence can give Geno Smith more room against a Browns defense allowing 23.8 points per game. [23] [24] [25] [26] Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Pittsburgh Steelers. Spread selection: Indianapolis Colts +3 at −112, DraftKings. Projected score: Indianapolis Colts 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 21. The case: Pittsburgh had allowed 21.8 points per game, and the official forecast called for rain with 15 mph gusts. The low scoring home script favors a Steelers win, but consecutive Colts wins point to Indianapolis staying inside three. [27] [28] [29] [30] The counterargument: Indianapolis carried the higher scoring offense into Pittsburgh and can turn that recent form into an outright road win. Jamel Dean and DeShon Elliott were out, while Jalen Ramsey was questionable. [27] [28] [29] [30] New York Giants at Washington Commanders Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: New York Giants. Spread selection: New York Giants +3.5 at −105, DraftKings. Projected score: New York Giants 23, Washington Commanders 20. The case: New York's 3 and 1 start and 19.8 points allowed per game form the steadier baseline against a Washington defense allowing 30.5. The Giants plus 3.5 fits a tight road result. [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] The counterargument: Jayden Daniels had been cleared to start, and Washington ranked sixth in rushing defense. A ground led Commanders game can put New York in a late chase. [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] Late window Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 4:05 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Denver Broncos. Spread selection: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 at −112, DraftKings. Projected score: Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 21. The case: Denver entered 2 and 2 against an 0 and 4 Chargers team missing Joe Alt, Kayode Awosika, and Trevor Penning. Denver gets the winner call, but a 23 to 21 division result keeps the Chargers inside 3.5. [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] The counterargument: Denver was without starting cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss. Justin Herbert can exploit that depleted secondary and flip the outright call. [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Detroit Lions. Spread selection: Arizona Cardinals +5.5 at −112, DraftKings. Projected score: Detroit Lions 27, Arizona Cardinals 23. The case: Detroit's 29.8 points and 405.5 yards per game supplied the stronger offensive baseline against an Arizona defense allowing 29.3 points and 365.3 yards. A four point Lions win still leaves Arizona inside 5.5. [42] [43] [44] [45] The counterargument: Detroit had allowed 31.8 points per game, and Arizona can use its running game and home field to manage the pace. Guard Isaiah Adams and safety Andrew Wingard were out for the Cardinals. [42] [43] [44] [45] San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Seattle Seahawks. Spread selection: San Francisco 49ers +3 at −105, DraftKings. Projected score: San Francisco 49ers 23, Seattle Seahawks 24. The case: Seattle had allowed only 263.3 yards per game, and Leonard Williams was cleared to play. Home field plus Nick Bosa's absence supports a one point Seahawks win, while San Francisco gets three points in the separate spread call. [46] [47] [48] [49] The counterargument: San Francisco was 4 and 0, averaging 30.5 points and allowing 16.0 per game. Its offense can make the Seattle margin disappear and deliver an outright road win. [46] [47] [48] [49] Prime time Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons Kickoff: Sunday, October 11 at 8:20 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Atlanta Falcons. Spread selection: Atlanta Falcons −3 at −120, DraftKings. Projected score: Baltimore Ravens 20, Atlanta Falcons 24. The case: Lamar Jackson was out, Tyler Huntley was set for his 17th career start, and Atlanta brought the league's top run defense through four games into Sunday night. That puts the Falcons in front in a four point score call. [50] [51] [52] The counterargument: Baltimore averaged 29.0 points and 411.0 yards per game and had a 2 and 0 road record. A controlled Huntley outing can keep Baltimore inside the number. [50] [51] [52] Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Kickoff: Monday, October 12 at 8:15 p.m. Eastern. Winner call: Los Angeles Rams. Spread selection: Buffalo Bills +3.5 at −115, DraftKings. Projected score: Buffalo Bills 24, Los Angeles Rams 27. The case: Los Angeles had allowed 20.8 points and 255.8 yards per game in the pregame data, while Buffalo was without Ed Oliver and Joshua Palmer. That supports a narrow Rams home win. [53] [54] [55] The counterargument: Buffalo had produced 31.8 points, 398.8 yards, and 139.0 rushing yards per game. DJ Moore was questionable rather than ruled out, so Buffalo has a path to remain inside one field goal. [53] [54] [55] Five player props: our Week 5 side challenge Added October 11, 2026 at 10:44 a.m. Eastern, before these games started. Alongside the game calls, let’s put five player props on the board and see how the reasoning holds up. We collected 25 quoted props and reviewed 12 in depth to reach this shortlist. These are SBA editorial research picks, not outputs from the customer pick generator. We’ll track them separately from our winner calls, spread picks and the site’s Results totals. No outcome is certain; we are tracking these as five individual selections, not suggesting a parlay. Quote note: The books and prices below were reported in articles published October 9–11 and collected at 10:22 a.m. Eastern on October 11. They were not checked live through our Odds API or at the sportsbook. Confirm the exact line, price and final player availability before betting. We will keep these original quoted selections intact for the recap. [56] [57] [58] | Player / matchup | Our prop selection | Publisher-quoted book / odds | Actual stat | Result | |---|---|---|---|---| | Roman Wilson — Colts at Steelers | Over 40.5 receiving yards | DraftKings −115 | — | — | | Cody White — Raiders at Patriots | Over 19.5 receiving yards | DraftKings −114 | — | — | | Kenyon Sadiq — Browns at Jets | Under 32.5 receiving yards | DraftKings −112 | — | — | | Nico Collins — Texans at Titans | Over 5.5 receptions | FanDuel −122 | — | — | | Aaron Jones — Vikings at Saints | Over 72.5 rushing yards | FanDuel −114 | — | — | Roman Wilson: Six targets in each of four games and receiving totals of 60 and 74 yards in the last two make opportunity the case. Michael Pittman Jr. being out helps that case, but Wilson’s recent yardage included long gains. Consistent targets do not guarantee consistent yards. [59] [28] Cody White: The low threshold is appealing alongside a Week 4 increase to 52 offensive snaps and four targets. Two Raiders receivers were ruled out, and White was a full Friday participant. The catch: that bigger role is established for only one game. [60] [15] [57] Kenyon Sadiq: His four receiving-yard totals were 21, 17, 105 and 0. Three finished below our 32.5 line, but the 105-yard game is a reminder that a target spike can undo an under quickly. We do not have a verified snap split to remove that uncertainty. [61] [25] Nico Collins: Seven receptions in each of his two verified appearances, on 10 and eight targets, support a volume-based over. He was not on Houston’s Week 5 injury report. The two-game sample after a hamstring absence is the reason to keep expectations measured. [62] [7] Aaron Jones: Rushing totals of 40, 105, 58 and 94 yards leave this line split at two clears in four games. Recent workload and reported Saints run-defense context support the over, but Minnesota’s offensive-line injuries are a real counterargument. [63] [20] [56] Prop tracker: No decided results yet. After verified finals, we’ll add each player’s actual stat and a win or loss where decided, then recap the five-prop record separately. We’ll also revisit which usage and injury assumptions held up. These small recent samples describe what happened; they are not win probabilities or evidence of a profitable edge. SBA Takeaway Our winner call does not automatically become our spread pick. Several matchups have a narrow projected finish, so we can back a favorite to win and an underdog to cover. Player availability still matters: a questionable designation is not confirmation that a player will play. These are SBA editorial picks, separate from customer generated picks and the site's Results totals. We will keep the original calls intact when we return for the recap. Sources - [1] ESPN NFL event summary for Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers - [2] Game Preview: Bears at Packers | 2026 Week 5 - [3] Packers list three questionable, two doubtful vs. Bears | Week 5 Injury Report - [4] NFL game page for Bears at Packers, 2026 Week 5 - [5] ESPN official Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans event summary - [6] Houston Texans Know Your Foe Week 5 preview - [7] Houston Texans Week 5 injury report - [8] Covers Texans vs Titans Week 5 preview - [9] ESPN NFL event summary for event 401872982 - [10] Bengals Week 5 injury report - [11] Dolphins Week 5 injury report - [12] ESPN NFL Week 5 picks and matchup preview - [13] ESPN NFL event summary for Raiders at Patriots - [14] Patriots game preview for Raiders at Patriots, Week 5 - [15] Raiders Patriots Week 5 injury report - [16] Patriots Wire preview of Raiders at Patriots - [17] ESPN NFL event summary for Vikings at Saints - [18] ESPN Vikings at Saints game page - [19] New Orleans Saints Week 5 Vikings preview - [20] Minnesota Vikings final Week 5 injury report - [21] New Orleans Saints Friday Week 5 injury report - [22] Sports Illustrated Saints Week 5 staff predictions - [23] ESPN NFL event summary for Cleveland Browns at New York Jets - [24] Jets Browns Game Preview: Knowing the Stakes - [25] Jets Injury Report: Week 5 vs. Browns Friday - [26] Can the Browns avoid a trap game against the Jets? Storylines and predictions - [27] ESPN NFL event summary for Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers - [28] Steelers official Week 5 injury report - [29] Colts official Week 5 preview - [30] Independent Colts and Steelers Week 5 preview - [31] Official ESPN event summary - [32] Giants vs. Commanders Week 5 Injury Report: Chauncey Golston, Jason Pinnock ruled out - [33] Commanders vs. Giants preview | A test within the division - [34] Game Status | Jayden Daniels set to play vs. Giants - [35] NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, schedule, odds, fantasy tips - [36] ESPN NFL event summary: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers - [37] ESPN Denver Broncos 2026 schedule - [38] ESPN Los Angeles Chargers 2026 schedule - [39] Chargers vs. Broncos Injury Report: James and Johnston Out, McConkey and Kolar Questionable in Week 5 - [40] Injury Report: CBs Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss ruled out for Broncos Week 5 game vs. Chargers - [41] Broncos vs. Chargers injury report: Riley Moss ruled out - [42] ESPN NFL event summary, Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, event 401872991 - [43] Arizona Cardinals Injury Report: Week 5 vs Lions - [44] Lions at Cardinals injury report: Oct. 9 - [45] NFL predictions: 4 keys to a Lions victory over the Cardinals in Week 5 - [46] ESPN official event summary for San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - [47] 49ers Week 5 final injury report - [48] Seahawks Week 5 injury report - [49] CBS Sports Week 5 preview and picks - [50] ESPN NFL event summary - [51] Lamar Jackson ruled out for Sunday Night Football game vs. Falcons - [52] Everything You Need to Know: Ravens vs. Falcons - [53] ESPN NFL event summary, Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams, event 401872994 - [54] Rams Injury Report, Week 5 vs. Bills - [55] Bills at Rams: Friday injury reports for both teams - [56] NFL Player Props for Week 5, Sportsbook Review — updated October 9, 2026 - [57] Sean Koerner’s Week 5 player props, Action Network — updated October 10, 2026 - [58] Sunday afternoon Week 5 player props, Action Network — updated October 11, 2026 - [59] Roman Wilson verified 2026 game log, ESPN - [60] Cody White 2026 game log, Las Vegas Raiders - [61] Kenyon Sadiq verified 2026 game log, ESPN - [62] Nico Collins verified 2026 game log, ESPN - [63] Aaron Jones verified 2026 game log, ESPN Related Reading - NFL Week 4 Results - NFL Week 3 Results - NFL Week 2 Results