Sungjae Im Leads the FedExCup Opener While McIlroy and Scheffler Chase

The FedExCup playoffs opened this week at TPC Southwind in Memphis, and the leaderboard already looks nothing like the pre-tournament betting menu. Sungjae Im leads the FedEx St. Jude Championship at 9 under. Scottie Scheffler sits at 2 under. Rory McIlroy is 4 over and in real danger of a short week. Robert MacIntyre shot 82 in the first round and withdrew. This is the part of the calendar where golf gets genuinely chaotic, and the reason is simple. Only 70 players made it here, the field shrinks again after this event, and everyone in the bottom half of the standings is playing with their season on the line. The board through Friday afternoon | Position | Player | Score | |---|---|---| | 1 | Sungjae Im | -9 | | T2 | Jake Knapp | -6 | | T2 | Adam Scott | -6 | | T2 | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | -6 | | T5 | Jordan Spieth | -5 | | T5 | Patrick Cantlay | -5 | | T5 | Chris Gotterup | -5 | | T5 | Michael Thorbjornsen | -5 | | T5 | Kurt Kitayama | -5 | Round one produced a five-way tie at 5 under between Spieth, Thorbjornsen, Kitayama, Jake Knapp and Michael Kim. Im opened with a 66 and then went 5 under through his first 16 holes on Friday to separate himself. Adam Scott, at 46 years old, is right there at 6 under. Sudarshan Yellamaraju, the Canadian who was 35th on the first-round leaderboard, went 6 under on Friday to jump into a share of second. Course details matter here more than usual. TPC Southwind is a par 70 at 7,288 yards with a $20 million purse. It is not a bomber's paradise. Water is in play on a lot of the closing stretch, the greens punish approach mistakes, and short hitters who control their irons routinely beat the field. Im is exactly that player type. Justin Rose won here last year and is 3 over through his second round. Why the favorites are struggling Scheffler opened with a 68 and is 2 under, which in a normal week would be fine. The problem is that a par-70 setup with soft scoring conditions turns 2 under into 20th place, and the leader is seven shots clear of him. He is not out of it. He is also not in control of it, which is unusual. McIlroy is the bigger story. A 74 in round one at 4 over left him near the bottom of a 70-man field, and with no cut in the traditional sense at this event, the damage shows up in FedExCup points rather than a missed weekend. Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas are all clustered between 2 under and even par, close enough to matter and far enough back that they need a weekend move. MacIntyre's 82 and withdrawal is the outlier. Eight shots worse than the next-worst score in the field is not a bad day, it is a sign something was wrong. The betting angle bettors actually miss in playoff golf Outright winner markets get all the attention in the playoffs, and they are the hardest place to find value in a 70-man field where the top 15 or so players are all live. The more interesting markets during FedExCup week are the ones tied to the standings, not the trophy. Projected points movement is the reason. Im's position this week reportedly moves him from around 53rd in the standings toward a projected 967 points, which is the difference between an early exit and playing for real money at the Tour Championship. Players in that band, roughly 40th through 60th in points, are motivated in a way that does not show up in their season-long form lines. That shows up in top-10 and top-20 markets, in matchup props, and in second-round leader lines more reliably than it shows up in outrights. The other honest point about this format: soft conditions and a shrinking field increase variance, not reduce it. A leaderboard with Yellamaraju at 6 under alongside Adam Scott is the format working as designed. Handicap accordingly, and treat outrights as the lottery ticket portion of the card rather than the core position. SBA takeaway Im has the game and the course fit to hold this, and a two-shot lead with 36 holes left at a par 70 is a real lead. The names to watch are Cantlay and Spieth, both of whom have won at demanding second-shot courses and both of whom are inside three shots. Scheffler needs a low weekend round to make it interesting. McIlroy needs a different tournament. Related reading - Jackson Koivun Beats Scottie Scheffler to Win the 3M Open in His Third Pro Start - Michael Kim Shoots a 59 at the 3M Open and Flips the Whole Board - Jackson Koivun's Record 61 Sets Up a Sunday Showdown With Scheffler at the 3M Open