The Red Sox Just Did Something No Team in MLB History Had Done

The Boston Red Sox lost 2-1 to Toronto on Monday night, and it was their third loss in a row. Six weeks ago that sentence would have been unremarkable. Now it's news, because this team just did something no team in the 126-year history of Major League Baseball had done before. Boston went 27-3 over a 30-game stretch. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Red Sox are the first team in MLB history to win at least 27 games in a 30-game span after entering that span 10 or more games under .500. They were 37-48 on July 3. They're 64-54 now. The numbers behind the run are absurd Start with the low point. Boston bottomed out at 32-46 after a June 18 loss to Toronto, 14 games under .500 and four straight losses deep into a lost season. The general manager was reportedly starting to think about which contracts he could move at the deadline. Then Boston won 15 straight, tying the franchise record set in 1946. The Red Sox went 21-4 in July, a .840 winning percentage that stands as the best calendar month in franchise history with a minimum of 15 games. They won nine consecutive series, the second-longest run in team history behind an 11-series stretch in 1912. And per Elias, they became the fastest team in MLB history to go from 14 games under .500 to 13 games over, doing it in 44 days. The old record was 59 days, held by the 1914 Braves. That team is literally nicknamed the Miracle Braves. Only nine other teams since 1900 have posted a 27-3 stretch inside a season. Every one of them was at or near .500 when the run started. Boston was 11 games under. The market moved, and now the question is what's left This is where it gets interesting for anyone holding tickets. Boston's playoff probability went from roughly 2% to 96% during the run. Projected win totals climbed from 70 to 90. That's not a nudge, that's a full repricing of a franchise inside seven weeks, and it means the cheap number is long gone. The AL pennant picture now looks like this: | Team | Record | Pennant Probability | |---|---|---| | Tampa Bay Rays | 72-46 | 35% | | New York Yankees | 66-52 | 17% | | Boston Red Sox | 64-54 | 13% | So Boston is a legitimate contender priced like a legitimate contender. The underlying profile actually supports it. Since June 18 the rotation ranks second in MLB with a 3.05 ERA and leads baseball in quality starts. The offense went from a .694 OPS that ranked 25th to a .764 mark that ranks seventh, and the power jumped from 61 homers in 72 games to 57 homers in 46 games. Boston also ranks first in the American League in run prevention. There's still upside in the roster too. Adley Rutschman was expected back Tuesday. Garrett Crochet is talking about returning as a reliever, which would give this team a nasty late-inning look with Aroldis Chapman already in place. Roman Anthony should be back at some point. Why the three-game skid is the useful signal A 27-3 run is not a baseline. It's a spike. The most valuable thing about these last three losses is that they remind you what this team actually is: an 88-to-94 win club that spent the first half underperforming its own run differential by a wide margin. Boston was on pace for 78 wins based on differential when it was playing like a 65-win team. That gap was always going to close. It just closed violently. If you're pricing Boston from here, price the 90-win team, not the team that won 27 of 30. Regression works in both directions, and the honest read is that the Red Sox already collected most of what they were owed. SBA takeaway The 27-3 stretch is one of the great turnarounds in baseball history and it's already priced in. Three straight losses do not mean the season is unraveling, and they also do not mean the market is handing out value again. Boston is a real AL contender sitting third in pennant probability behind Tampa Bay and New York, and that ranking is roughly where the numbers say it belongs. Bet the profile, not the highlight reel. --- Related reading - The Red Sox Went 21-4 in July and Just Beat the Best Team in Baseball - The Skubal Wait Is Over: Detroit's 12-Inning Collapse Sealed the Biggest Deadline Move - Chris Sale Two-Hits the Mets in a 1-0 Gem