The Red Sox Went 21-4 in July and Just Beat the Best Team in Baseball

The Red Sox went 21-4 in July. Then they walked into Dodger Stadium and beat the best team in baseball 9-4. If you have not adjusted how you price Boston, you are already behind. Boston is 58-51 now, third in the AL East, six games back of Tampa Bay. That standings line undersells what actually happened. This team was 37-47 on July 1. Baseball Reference now puts their postseason odds at 91.0 percent. A month of baseball moved them from sellers to a team the market has to respect every single night. A 21-4 month is not a hot streak, it is a different team Look at the month-by-month record and the July line jumps off the page. March was 1-4. April was 11-15. May was 13-14. June was 12-14. Then July came in at 21-4, a .840 clip, including a 15-game win streak that tied the franchise record and beat the 1946 mark. They won every series in July. Every single one. | Month | Record | Win % | |---|---|---| | March | 1-4 | .200 | | April | 11-15 | .423 | | May | 13-14 | .481 | | June | 12-14 | .462 | | July | 21-4 | .840 | The managerial change is part of this. Alex Cora went 10-17 before the switch. Chad Tracy is 48-34 since taking over. That is not a small sample anymore, and it is the kind of variable that public bettors tend to underweight because it does not show up in a pitcher matchup grid. The profile is pitching, not power Here is where Boston gets interesting from a market standpoint. They rank 28th in MLB in home runs with 105 and 21st in runs scored with 463. Those are bad offensive numbers. What is carrying them is a 3.54 team ERA, third best in baseball. Sonny Gray is 13-2 with a 2.93 ERA and a 138 ERA+, tied for the MLB lead in wins. Ranger Suarez has a 3.15 ERA with 105 strikeouts. Payton Tolle is at 3.32 in 17 starts as a 23-year-old. Jake Bennett has a 2.74 ERA over 11 starts. Aroldis Chapman, at 38 years old, is sitting on a 1.72 ERA with 26 saves. That is a full staff, not one ace. Willson Contreras is the offense. He is hitting .288 with a .396 on-base, 23 homers, 67 RBI, and a 166 OPS+ worth 4.0 WAR. Ceddanne Rafaela has been the best all-around player on the roster at 4.7 WAR with a league-leading 27 doubles. Wilyer Abreu adds 3.8 WAR. After that it thins out fast, and Jarren Duran hitting .198 with a .595 OPS is a real problem in a lineup that already lacks thump. The Pythagorean record says 61-48, which means Boston has actually been slightly unlucky, not lucky. That matters. A team outperforming its run differential is usually a fade candidate. A team underperforming it while playing this well is not. What to watch before you bet Boston again Two things concern me. First, Contreras left Friday's game after a 95 mph pitch clipped his helmet. He is the offense. If he sits, this lineup goes from thin to genuinely bad, and the runs total should move with it. Second, the injury list is long. Garrett Crochet is on the 60-day IL after a 6.30 ERA in six starts, Roman Anthony and Trevor Story are also on the 60-day, and Marcelo Mayer and Curtis Mead are on the 10-day. The schedule also softens dramatically. After Saturday and Sunday in Los Angeles, Boston gets the White Sox at Fenway for three, then the Athletics for three. Nine of their next twelve are against teams under .500. Books know that. Expect the prices to reflect it, which means the value on Boston moneylines is probably already gone for the next two weeks. One more note for anyone tracking the other side of Friday's game. The Dodgers are 69-41 with the best record in baseball and they are 49-61 against the spread, third worst in MLB. Great team, expensive team. That gap is the whole reason run line and total shopping exists. SBA takeaway Boston is a legitimate playoff team now, and the 91 percent postseason number is not a fluke of a hot month. The pitching is real and third in baseball. The concern is not the process, it is the lineup depth behind Contreras and Rafaela. Watch the Contreras status report before you touch a Red Sox total or moneyline this weekend. The pitching gives them a floor. The offense decides the ceiling, and right now that ceiling depends on one bat staying healthy. Boston sends Payton Tolle against Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Saturday night in Los Angeles. That is a tough spot on paper and a good test of exactly how much this July actually changed. Related reading - The Red Sox Streak Is Over at 15, and It Still Changed Everything - Red Sox Win 14 Straight and Sit One Game From an 80-Year-Old Record - The White Sox Lead the AL Central, and That Breaks the Whole Trade Deadline