NFL Week 6 Picks: Winners, Spreads and Five Player Props

An outright winner call and a spread call are different questions. This SBA editorial outlook keeps those calls separate across 13 remaining Week 6 matchups, then puts five independently researched player prop candidates on a separate side challenge. Prepared October 18 before kickoff. Houston at Jacksonville starts at 9:30 a.m. Eastern in London. The rest of Sunday’s board starts at 1 p.m. or later, with Washington at San Francisco on Monday night. This board covers only matchups that had not started at publication. Seattle at Denver finished Thursday. It is context only, has no retroactive Week 6 outlook here, and does not enter this board or its future records. The Week 6 Board Reference line note: Every spread below is the exact recorded DraftKings reference offer from The Odds API snapshot. The source updated the offers at 2026-10-18 12:46:27 UTC and the snapshot was captured at 2026-10-18 12:47:25.220422 UTC. These are frozen reference quotations, not claims of current sportsbook availability. Lines move and availability varies. Our later recap will grade the exact line published here, never a later or closing line. The table preserves the established comparison fields for the eventual follow up. Actual score and result cells remain blank until the games finish and the outcomes are verified. | Matchup | We picked to win | Our original spread selection | Original projected score | Actual final score | Winner call | Spread result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars −2.5 (−118, DraftKings) | Houston Texans 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 24 | | | | | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons +1.5 (−118, DraftKings) | Chicago Bears 24, Atlanta Falcons 27 | | | | | Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns | Cleveland Browns | Cleveland Browns +3 (−102, DraftKings) | Baltimore Ravens 17, Cleveland Browns 20 | | | | | Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans +6.5 (−102, DraftKings) | Indianapolis Colts 24, Tennessee Titans 20 | | | | | New York Jets at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | New England Patriots −7.5 (−108, DraftKings) | New York Jets 17, New England Patriots 27 | | | | | New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants +1.5 (−122, DraftKings) | New Orleans Saints 24, New York Giants 23 | | | | | Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers | Carolina Panthers −3 (−112, DraftKings) | Carolina Panthers 27, Philadelphia Eagles 20 | | | | | Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5 (−115, DraftKings) | Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 | | | | | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams −12.5 (−112, DraftKings) | Arizona Cardinals 17, Los Angeles Rams 31 | | | | | Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs −7.5 (−108, DraftKings) | Kansas City Chiefs 27, Los Angeles Chargers 17 | | | | | Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | Buffalo Bills | Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 (−110, DraftKings) | Buffalo Bills 27, Las Vegas Raiders 23 | | | | | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers −1.5 (−102, DraftKings) | Dallas Cowboys 24, Green Bay Packers 27 | | | | | Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers −7.5 (−110, DraftKings) | Washington Commanders 20, San Francisco 49ers 30 | | | | Game by game outlook Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars Winner call: Jacksonville Jaguars. Spread selection: Jacksonville Jaguars −2.5 at −118, DraftKings. Projected score: Houston Texans 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 24. The case: Jacksonville entered 4 and 1, averaging 24.6 points while allowing 14.0. Houston was 1 and 4, with 79.0 rushing yards per game against Jacksonville's 63.8 rushing yards allowed. Houston's David Montgomery was out, while Jacksonville could lean on Bhayshul Tuten and Trevor Lawrence. Parker Washington's 124 yard, two touchdown Week 5 and Jacksonville's plus 5 turnover margin support a Jaguars win and the separate Jacksonville minus 2.5 spread call. Jacksonville is the designated home team at Wembley, not playing in its home stadium. [2] The counterargument: Houston's 18 sacks and Will Anderson Jr.'s 7.5 sacks can stress a Jacksonville line missing Anton Harrison. C.J. Stroud had not thrown an interception through five games, Nico Collins remains a difficult matchup, and Jacksonville allowed 277.2 passing yards per game. Houston can win outright and cover if it protects Stroud and turns that pressure into Lawrence mistakes. [2] Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons Winner call: Atlanta Falcons. Spread selection: Atlanta Falcons +1.5 at −118, DraftKings. Projected score: Chicago Bears 24, Atlanta Falcons 27. The case: Atlanta gets the home winner call behind a 23.8 point, 375.0 yard offense and Bijan Robinson's league leading 580 rushing yards. Chicago carried a 407.4 yard offense and a 19.2 points allowed baseline, but Caleb Williams was still officially questionable after missing three games. Michael Penix Jr. was expected to make a fourth straight start, and Chicago's defense was missing Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, and T.J. Edwards. The 27 to 24 score makes Atlanta +1.5 coherent. [3] The counterargument: Chicago averaged 173.2 rushing yards, while Atlanta allowed 261.4 passing yards per game. Williams practiced fully, so his return could stabilize the offense after five turnovers in Green Bay. Atlanta was 0 and 2 at home, with Drake London and Jake Matthews unresolved on the report and C.J. Henderson out. A clean Chicago game can flip the outright call. [3] Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Winner call: Cleveland Browns. Spread selection: Cleveland Browns +3 at −102, DraftKings. Projected score: Baltimore Ravens 17, Cleveland Browns 20. The case: Cleveland gets home field and the cleaner quarterback availability picture after Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out with an ankle injury. Baltimore still averaged 410.6 yards and 29.2 points, but Tyler Huntley was again set to replace Jackson. Cleveland averaged 296.2 yards and 18.6 points, yet Deshaun Watson was active, KC Concepcion had cleared concussion protocol, and the Browns had won three home games. [4] The counterargument: Baltimore averaged 164.4 rushing yards and allowed 102.0, while Derrick Henry had 476 yards and seven touchdowns. The Ravens had won three straight in the series. Cleveland had unresolved availability for Judkins, Schwesinger, and Graham, so losses in the run game or front seven could hand Huntley and Henry the decisive edge. [4] Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Winner call: Indianapolis Colts. Spread selection: Tennessee Titans +6.5 at −102, DraftKings. Projected score: Indianapolis Colts 24, Tennessee Titans 20. The case: Indianapolis held the stronger baseline at 24.8 points and 305.0 yards per game, against Tennessee's 11.6 points and 261.8 yards. The Colts were 2 and 3 after wins over Houston and Washington, while the Titans were 0 and 5 and had scored three points in their last game. Indianapolis' listed starters included Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Keenan Allen, Josh Downs, and DeForest Buckner. That supports an Indianapolis win while Tennessee stays inside six and a half. [5] The counterargument: Indianapolis allowed 27.6 points and 398.2 yards per game, worse than Tennessee's 21.8 and 342.6. Tyler Warren was questionable, and Jaylon Carlies and Ashton Dulin were out. Tony Pollard and Jeffery Simmons offered Tennessee a route to a closer road result if Cam Ward was protected and the Colts run defense broke down. [5] New York Jets at New England Patriots Winner call: New England Patriots. Spread selection: New England Patriots −7.5 at −108, DraftKings. Projected score: New York Jets 17, New England Patriots 27. The case: New England had the clearer offensive baseline at 22.0 points and 382.0 yards per game, against 18.6 and 310.8 for the Jets. The Patriots also allowed 90.8 rushing yards per game, and their 45 to 17 win over Las Vegas followed a 74 point two game stretch. The Jets had Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell out, while Drake Maye practiced fully. The 27 to 17 projection supports the exact Patriots −7.5 selection. [6] The counterargument: New York's defense had held Cleveland to 198 yards and recorded eight sacks, while New England carried a minus 5 turnover differential. Carlton Davis III and Karon Prunty were out for the Patriots, and A.J. Brown, Will Campbell, and TreVeyon Henderson remained questionable. A strong Jets pass rush could keep New England below the number. [6] New Orleans Saints at New York Giants Winner call: New Orleans Saints. Spread selection: New York Giants +1.5 at −122, DraftKings. Projected score: New Orleans Saints 24, New York Giants 23. The case: New Orleans had the stronger passing baseline at 259.8 yards per game. New York allowed 5.2 yards per carry, a helpful setting for a Saints ground game that had averaged 82 rushing yards. The Giants' 3, 1, and 1 record came against the league's softest opponent winning percentage in the reviewed research, while New Orleans had a road win at Baltimore. The one point road score leaves the Giants inside the number. [7] The counterargument: New York was 3 and 0 at home and averaged 21.8 points, while the Saints allowed 30.2. Jameis Winston had thrown three touchdown passes in each of his prior two games, and the Giants' blitz rate had reached 56.6 percent across their prior two contests. Pressure on Tyler Shough or a Cam Skattebo led ground game could swing the result. [7] Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles Winner call: Carolina Panthers. Spread selection: Carolina Panthers −3 at −112, DraftKings. Projected score: Carolina Panthers 27, Philadelphia Eagles 20. The case: Carolina entered after a bye with 30.3 points and 421.5 yards per game, against Philadelphia's 18.4 points and 278.2 yards. The Panthers' 2 and 2 record included a 32 to 26 win over Detroit. Philadelphia had lost three straight and was set to start Tanner McKee because Jalen Hurts was out, with Saquon Barkley also out. Bryce Young was cleared, DeVonta Smith was cleared for Philadelphia, and Jalen Coker's return added to Carolina's options. [8] The counterargument: Philadelphia was at home and allowed 22.4 points per game, with eight takeaways and a 50 percent red zone touchdown rate. McKee had first team reps, Smith returned, Jonathan Greenard was back, and Dameon Pierce was in line to start. Carolina allowed 27.3 points per game, leaving a plausible Eagles cover or outright win. [8] Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Winner call: Pittsburgh Steelers. Spread selection: Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5 at −115, DraftKings. Projected score: Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. The case: Pittsburgh owned the stronger five game baseline at 22.2 points and 348.0 yards per game, against Tampa Bay's 20.0 and 323.4. The Steelers allowed 21.8 points, while Tampa Bay allowed 22.4 and only 72.8 rushing yards. Pittsburgh's 34 to 22 win over Indianapolis preceded a Tampa Bay win over Dallas. Baker Mayfield was out with a dislocated right thumb, putting Jalon Daniels in front of T.J. Watt's pass rush. [9] The counterargument: Tampa Bay averaged 133.0 rushing yards, against 101.2 for Pittsburgh, and allowed only 307.4 yards per game. Daniels won at Dallas in his second start. Pittsburgh had Jalen Ramsey, Jamel Dean, Keeanu Benton, and Pat Freiermuth listed questionable, so Tampa's home defense could make the game uncomfortable for Aaron Rodgers. [9] Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams Winner call: Los Angeles Rams. Spread selection: Los Angeles Rams −12.5 at −112, DraftKings. Projected score: Arizona Cardinals 17, Los Angeles Rams 31. The case: Los Angeles held a major total offense edge at 424.4 yards per game on the NFL game page, against Arizona's 301.2. Arizona ranked 23rd in scoring at 21.6 points and allowed 32.4 points per game. The Cardinals had lost four straight and were without running back Jeremiyah Love, while Matthew Stafford was active in his established Rams role. The 31 to 17 projection clears 12.5. [10] The counterargument: The Rams entered 2 and 3 after a 37 to 34 overtime loss to Buffalo and allowed 24.0 points per game. Jacoby Brissett had thrown a touchdown in every Cardinals start, and Arizona carried a plus 2 turnover differential against Los Angeles' minus 3. Questionable secondary players on both teams could narrow the margin. [10] Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Winner call: Kansas City Chiefs. Spread selection: Kansas City Chiefs −7.5 at −108, DraftKings. Projected score: Kansas City Chiefs 27, Los Angeles Chargers 17. The case: Kansas City had won its first four regular season games, including a 30 to 27 win at Las Vegas, and brought a 29.5 point, 421.5 yard offense into the home game. The Chargers were 0 and 5 after a 23 to 17 loss to Denver. Joe Alt, Kayode Awosika, Derwin James Jr., Donte Jackson, and Tre' Harris were out, while Patrick Mahomes practiced fully. The ten point score margin supports Chiefs −7.5. [11] The counterargument: Los Angeles had kept its prior three losses inside one score. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston were off the final report, Justin Herbert had helped build a 17 to 10 third quarter lead over Denver, and Kansas City had allowed 27 points in its latest game. Better protection and a few explosive plays could keep the Chargers inside 7.5. [11] Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders Winner call: Buffalo Bills. Spread selection: Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 at −110, DraftKings. Projected score: Buffalo Bills 27, Las Vegas Raiders 23. The case: Buffalo entered 4 and 1 with 32.8 points and 407.8 yards per game, compared with Las Vegas at 26.4 and 345.4. Josh Allen had 1,249 passing yards and 239 rushing yards through five games, and Buffalo had just won at the Rams after a late offensive surge. Las Vegas had allowed New England 536 yards in its prior game. A four point Buffalo road win makes Raiders +5.5 the separate spread side. [12] The counterargument: Buffalo allowed 28.2 points and 404.0 yards per game, including 295.8 passing yards. DJ Moore, Joshua Palmer, Ed Oliver, Dee Alford, and T.J. Sanders were questionable. Las Vegas had Brock Bowers available and Ashton Jeanty without a game designation. Home field and a healthier Raiders skill group could produce an upset or one score finish. [12] Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers Winner call: Green Bay Packers. Spread selection: Green Bay Packers −1.5 at −102, DraftKings. Projected score: Dallas Cowboys 24, Green Bay Packers 27. The case: Green Bay allowed 327.0 yards per game, compared with Dallas allowing 400.2. Jordan Love had 1,408 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions, and the Packers had followed a 17 to 14 win at Tampa Bay with a 31 to 7 win over Chicago. Dallas averaged 27.6 points but had lost 24 to 16 to Tampa Bay last Thursday. The outlook calls for a narrow Packers win, not a blowout. [13] The counterargument: Dallas averaged 357.8 yards and 27.6 points, both above Green Bay's 342.0 and 20.8. The Packers were missing Javon Hargrave, Jonathan Ford, Skyy Moore, and Benjamin St Juste, with Jordon Riley doubtful and five others questionable. Dak Prescott can flip the game if he attacks those absences early. [13] Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers Winner call: San Francisco 49ers. Spread selection: San Francisco 49ers −7.5 at −110, DraftKings. Projected score: Washington Commanders 20, San Francisco 49ers 30. The case: San Francisco was 5 and 0 after a 32 to 29 win at Seattle, where its defense recorded four takeaways and five sacks. The 49ers averaged 30.8 points and 367.8 yards while allowing 18.6 points and 308.4 yards. Brock Purdy had 1,196 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Washington was 1, 3, and 1, allowed 29.8 points, and had leading rusher Jacory Croskey Merritt out. [14] The counterargument: Jayden Daniels had 302 total yards and two rushing touchdowns in his Week 5 return. Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, Rachaad White, and several defenders still had unresolved designations, while San Francisco had Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa out. A lower scoring Commanders effort or another 49ers absence could keep Washington inside 7.5. [14] Five player props: the Week 6 side challenge These five selections come from the current prop quotations and our matchup research. They are SBA editorial research selections, not customer generated picks, site Results performance, or a parlay suggestion. Each selected player comes from a different matchup. Prop quote note: The underlying publisher quotations were captured at 2026-10-18 12:49:15.870025 UTC. They were not checked live at a sportsbook. The book, threshold, and price shown are only the source's stated terms. Bijan Robinson and Cam Skattebo's ESPN quotations did not expressly name a sportsbook, so no book is inferred. Confirm the current line, price, player availability, and applicable rules before acting. No outcome is certain. | Player / matchup | Our prop selection | Publisher quoted book / odds | Actual stat | Result | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bijan Robinson / Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | Over 18.5 longest rush | Sportsbook not stated, −118 | | | | Cam Skattebo / New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | Over 58.5 rushing yards | Sportsbook not stated, −109 | | | | Darren Waller / Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles | Under 29.5 receiving yards | FanDuel, −113 | | | | Emeka Egbuka / Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Over 36.5 receiving yards | DraftKings, −111 | | | | Josh Allen / Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | Over 276.5 passing plus rushing yards | DraftKings, −113 | | | Bijan Robinson, over 18.5 longest rush: The ESPN preview cited six rushes of at least 20 yards on 102 attempts and a 12.7 percent rate of runs of 10 or more yards. Robinson's 580 rushing yards establish the role behind the quote. Chicago allowed only 96.0 rushing yards per game and ranked ninth against the run in the reviewed analysis, so a disciplined front can keep the longest gain below the number. [15] Cam Skattebo, over 58.5 rushing yards: Skattebo's official logs were 81, 36, 60, 58, and 59 rushing yards. Three of five exceeded 58.5, and New Orleans allowed 148.8 rushing yards per game in the official event data. The sample is mixed, and a negative game script or reduced carries can leave the number short. The source quote named no sportsbook. [16] Darren Waller, under 29.5 receiving yards: The Action Network candidate tied the under to an 8.7 percent target rate when Jalen Coker was healthy, against 34 percent in the stated Coker absence sample. Coker was listed good to go, while Waller was not designated out. Waller had also cleared 29.5 in three straight games, so one longer catch or a heavier route share can defeat the under. [17] Emeka Egbuka, over 36.5 receiving yards: FTN listed 21 catches for 192 yards through five games, a 38 yard Week 5 with Jalon Daniels, and three clears in five games. Baker Mayfield's absence leaves a quarterback variable, and a lower volume Tampa Bay passing day can leave Egbuka below the source quote. [18] Josh Allen, over 276.5 passing plus rushing yards: FTN's stated five game sample was 1,249 passing yards plus 239 rushing yards, or 297.6 combined yards per game, including 107 rushing yards against the Rams in Week 5. A comfortable Buffalo lead can trim late passing volume, while Raiders pressure and questionable Bills receivers could limit the path to the line. [18] SBA Takeaway The Week 6 board makes one call on the winner and a separate call on the exact recorded spread. Those calls sometimes agree and sometimes do not. Projected scores are editorial forecasts, not probabilities, performance promises, or certainty claims. The five props remain a separate research challenge with blank results until verified finals and player statistics are available. We’ll return to this same article after the games, add verified finals and player statistics, and compare what we picked with what happened. Winner calls, spread picks and the five prop results stay in separate records. The original published lines and publication times will stay frozen for that review. Sources - [2] ESPN official Texans at Jaguars event summary - [3] Chicago Bears official Week 6 Falcons preview - [4] ESPN official Ravens at Browns event summary - [5] ESPN official Titans at Colts event summary - [6] ESPN official Jets at Patriots event summary - [7] ESPN official Saints at Giants event summary - [8] Philadelphia Eagles official Week 6 injury report - [9] ESPN official Steelers at Buccaneers event summary - [10] NFL official Cardinals at Rams game page - [11] ESPN official Chargers at Chiefs event summary - [12] ESPN official Bills at Raiders event summary - [13] ESPN official Cowboys at Packers event summary - [14] San Francisco 49ers official Week 6 matchup preview - [15] ESPN Week 6 NFL prop guide - [16] Cam Skattebo official ESPN 2026 game log - [17] Action Network Week 6 player props - [18] FTN Week 6 player prop bets Related Reading - NFL Week 5 Recap: Our Picks vs. Results - NFL Week 4 Results: Our Picks vs. Final Scores - Lamar Jackson Has a Return Chance, Not a Confirmed Start