The Brewers Just Passed the Dodgers, and Now They Play Four Games in LA

For the first time in nearly two months, the Los Angeles Dodgers are not the top team in baseball. ESPN's Week 20 power rankings put the Milwaukee Brewers at No. 1 at 74-47, ending a Dodgers run that stretched back to Week 12. Los Angeles sits second at 73-48. The schedule could not have set this up better. Those two teams open a four-game series in Los Angeles on Thursday. Milwaukee Is Winning With Duct Tape Here is what makes the Brewers' rise strange. They are playing shorthanded and it barely shows. Rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt is out until late August with a hamstring strain. Joey Ortiz is dealing with a stiff neck. Brice Turang started at shortstop Tuesday for the first time since 2023. Jihwan Bae, who Milwaukee signed last week after the Mets released him from Triple-A Syracuse, started at second base. Andrew Vaughn started at third base on Sunday and Monday because the Brewers wanted more offense from the position. That is a first-place infield built from spare parts and a waiver claim. And they head into Chavez Ravine as the No. 1 team in the sport. The Dodgers Are Not Actually Fine Los Angeles just swept the last-place Royals, which papers over the real problem. Before that sweep, the Dodgers had lost eight of nine and were 14-18 since the start of July. | Dodgers, 32-game span since July 1 | Rank | |---|---| | Team OPS | 21st in MLB | | Pitching ERA | 23rd in MLB | | Record | 14-18 | Dave Roberts said it himself before the homestand. > "We're a wild-card team right now. We've got to get going and play with urgency." That is a manager publicly calling out a roster that spent most of the season as the World Series favorite. There are legitimate reasons for optimism. Tarik Skubal is still getting acclimated after making his Dodger Stadium debut Monday. Blake Snell came back and looked sharp Tuesday. Tyler Glasnow and Will Smith are both making progress. A healthy version of this team in October is terrifying. But the version playing this week is not that team, and the market is slow to price a favorite falling off. The Rest of the Top 10 Moved Too Tampa Bay leapfrogged Atlanta into third place, and their run is not getting enough attention. The Rays are 74-46 with nine straight wins and 18 wins in their last 22. They own the best record in the American League since June 28, the best home mark in baseball at 41-18 at Tropicana Field, and 13 series sweeps, more than any other team. San Diego cracked the top 10 at No. 10 after Jackson Merrill homered in three straight games. The White Sox slipped to 11th despite still leading the AL Central, largely because their starters have posted a 4.34 ERA since the All-Star break, 21st in the majors. Why This Series Matters for Pricing Four games between the two best records in baseball in mid-August is a pricing event, not just a marquee matchup. Sportsbooks will still install the Dodgers as favorites in most of these games. Brand equity, home field, and the roster on paper all support that. The question worth asking is how much of the Dodgers' recent form is baked in. A team ranked 21st in OPS and 23rd in ERA over 32 games does not usually deserve a premium price, but it typically still gets one. Milwaukee's angle is different. They are the best record in the sport with a lineup that changes daily because of injuries. The market may respect the record while doubting the roster, and that combination can create value on Brewers moneylines in the middle games of the series. Series pricing is also worth a look. Four-game sets create split-heavy outcomes, and 2-2 is the most common result in evenly matched series. If a book offers series markets, compare the implied probability of a split against how often four-game sets between near-equal teams actually split. SBA Takeaway Power rankings do not move lines. Form does. The useful signal here is not that Milwaukee is ranked first, it is that the Dodgers have played .438 baseball for six weeks while still being priced like the best team in the National League. Track the opening numbers for all four games in this series. If Los Angeles opens at a price that assumes the version of the Dodgers from May rather than the version from July, that gap is your edge. If the market has already corrected, pass and move on. There is no requirement to bet a marquee series just because it is on television. The Brewers' injury list is the biggest variable. Cooper Pratt returning in late August changes their infield materially. Anything you conclude about Milwaukee this week comes with a shelf life. Related Reading - The Rays Have the Best Record in the AL and Nobody Noticed - The Skubal Wait Is Over: Detroit's Collapse Sealed the Biggest Trade of the Decade - NFL Teams Are Now Worth $299 Billion